Tourism in New Zealand represents nearly 1 in 10 jobs, 9.1% of the country's GDP and 18% of foreign exchange earnings. The country's tourism brand, 100% Pure New Zealand is world leading. However visitor demand and global tourism trends are changing, whether it is oil prices or the new middle classes of China. The FutureMaker project, commissioned by the New Zealand Ministry of Tourism and the Foundation for Research in Science and Technology, set out to envision the future of tourism by asking the question, 'what will New Zealand tourism look in the year 2050'. The research project produced four scenarios, Manaakitanga, An Eco Paradise, Perfect Storm and The State of China, all following different pathways and constructed based upon circumstances. Ian Yeoman's book has created a set of scenarios that provide a foundation to encourage and promote discussion in order to understand New Zealand tourism future. Download for free from here
The family remains at the emotional heart of society, and makes up a significant proportion of the tourism market. However, the concept of family has changed over the decades and there are now different types of families that have their own unique attributes and needs. Families may have one parent or two, who may or may not be of different genders. This cutting-edge book constructs a multidisciplinary perspective on family tourism by discussing various types of families; how parents and children influence travel behaviours now and in the future and how family holidays may also be linked to stress. Family Tourism: Multidisciplinary Perspectives provides a compilation of issues from academic writers around the globe, to provide a range of perspectives linked by a common theme of family tourism with a futures perspective.
By 2030, China will be the world's largest tourism destination, holidays in Outer Space will be the ultimate luxury experience, extreme Swedish ironing will be an Olympic Sport, embedded technologies will be the norm in future tourists and skiing in the Alps will be no more.
In 1950, 25 million consumers took an international holiday and by 2005 this figure had risen to 803 million. By 2030, it is forecasted that this figure will reach 1.9 billion international arrivals, spending US $2 trillion with US $5 billion being spent by international tourists every day across the world, from US $2 billion in Europe to US $1.5 billion in Asia.
These are some of the changes that will occur between now and 2030 that will change world tourism. Tomorrow's Tourist: Scenarios & Trends enables readers to imagine what a future tourist might be, where they will go and what they will do. This is the most comprehensive analysis of how world tourism is changing and what it means for destinations.
Sample Chapter - Singletons
Sample Chapter - The Health Tourist
Demography is the most important external factor that will shape the future of the tourism. Current demographic trends will change the demand for tourism and the available workforces, which will fundamentally impact on how the industries are structured, how they operate, and how they develop in a sustainable manner. The tourism industry has to know how, why, when and what will occur, the consequences for the industry, and the strategies that need to be put in place now to combat this change.
Tourism and Demography sets out answer these questions through a collection of informed expert opinions about demography trends and how they will shape the future of the tourism industry.
In times of economic downturn you need to know how much your customers will pay for a product and appropriate strategies - this is not about offering the lowest price in order to fill capacity. It's about knowing your market segment, how much they will pay, when they will purchase and what distribution they will use.
Pricing is about deciding your market position whereas revenue management is the strategic and tactical decisions firms take in order to optimize revenues and profits. Revenue Management offers insights into research, theories, applications and innovations and how these work in different industries.
Sports and Leisure Operations Management focuses on the operations management of games, events, experiences and activities within the world of sport. All operations provide goods and services by devising processes which transform or change the state or condition to produce output. Sport and related activities are no exception. The operations manager is responsible for the activities, decision-making and duties associated with managing the transformation process. This text explains and explores the process of operations management within the Sport and Leisure context. It is divided into six parts: sport and leisure in context, the design of sport and leisure facilities, inventory management, operations strategy, and merchandising and marketing. The final section provides real-life cases to set the text into context.
Companies that are better at fulfilling customer needs make better returns. In the current state of the world economy and cut throat competition, the essence for survival is to create more customer value as perceived by your customers relative to your competitors. Revenue Management and Pricing as a practical subject and demonstrates best practice throughout the tourism and hospitality industries by the extensive use of case material.
Festival and Events Management: an International Perspective is a unique text looking at the central role of events management in the cultural, tourism and arts industries. With international contributions from industry and academia, the text looks at the following:
Events & cultural environments
Managing the arts & leisure experience
Marketing, policies and strategies of art and leisure management
Chapters include exercises, and additional teaching materials and solutions to questions are provided as part of an accompanying online resource.
In 2050, Amsterdam's red light district will all be about android prostitutes who are clean of sexual transmitted infections (STIs), not smuggled in from Eastern Europe and forced into slavery, the city council will have direct control over android sex workers controlling prices, hours of operations and sexual services. This paper presents a futuristic scenario about sex tourism, discusses the drivers of change and the implications for the future. The paper pushes plausibility to the limit as boundaries of science fiction and fact become blurred in the ever increasing world of technology, consumption and humanity, a paradigm known as liminality.
The globalisation of tourism and increases in real wealth have meant tourists can take a holiday anywhere in the world, whether it is the North Pole or the South Pole and everywhere in between including a day trip into outer space with Virgin Galactic. Increases in disposal income allow a real change in social order, living standards and the desire for quality of life with tourism at the heart of this change. Against this background the concept of a fluid identity emerges. This trend is about the concept of self which is fluid and malleable in which self cannot be defined by boundaries, within which the choice and the desire for self and new experiences drive tourist consumption. However, as wealth decreases this identity becomes simpler, and a new thriftiness and desire for simplicity emerge. This paper examines the values, behaviours, trends and thinking of the future tourist, whether it is a fluid or simple identity.
This paper discusses the use of scenario planning as a methodology to help understand the future of tourism. It reports on the results of a scenario planning exercise undertaken in 2007 in Scotland by VisitScotland, the National Tourism Organisation for Scotland, which seeks to understand how transport might shape tourism in 2025. The study followed an established methodology used by the UK's Office for Science and Technology. The methodology used by the OfST study was modified and expanded by this study with a series of in-depth interviews with industry stakeholders to understand what the key drivers of change in the transport sector were in 2007 and would be in 2025. This was followed by the construction of two scenarios designed to look at two extreme cases of how transport and tourism would be interconnected to shape the destination and ability to access different types of tourism product and experience. These scenarios were then introduced to a workshop setting with key industry stakeholders to assess the reliability and validity of the scenarios. The paper also draws out wider implications for academic research of using scenario analysis in tourism, so that the value of this methodology can be understood and used more widely in appropriate settings. The study has to be viewed against the current tourism strategy for Scotland - the Tourism Framework for Change.
Download Scenario Planning as a Tool to Understand Uncertainty in Tourism: The Example of Transport and Tourism in Scotland in 2025
This paper explains the rationale behind a tourism marketing strategy prepared for Scotland, as an example of a small-nation destination. In 1985, a typical international tourist to Scotland would have been be described as 'American, over-50 and interested in heritage', whereas today the typical tourist is European, under-35 and interested in culture. The change can be explained within the context of global tourism trends, which provide an insightful explanation of this transformation. Looking to the future, the prospects up to 2025 are assessed in this paper based upon future trends and UNWTO projections. Is that future to be based upon arrivals from North America, European or the Rest of the World? Whatever the scenario, a strategy is presented that captures the essence of Scotland's international tourism expectations based upon key drivers and market prospects. In a highly competitive market, Scotland should focus on markets that it can win and that can contribute towards the industry's ambition to grow the economic value of tourism by 50% by the year 2015 through strong branding and a focused marketing proposition.
Download The Future of Scotland's International Tourism Markets Futures 41 (2009) 387–395
What is the future? As population age, what is the correlation between wealth and demography? How does this change the relationship between the variables of wealth and time, as today's baby boomers have both and as a consequence drives the rise of volunteerism in society. Then there is climate change. The further desertification of the Mediterranean significantly changes outdoor events in popular tourism destinations in Spain and Italy. California, one of the world's most famous food and wine destination will by 2050 be radically different due to lack of fresh water which impacts on the agricultural production. Then there is oil. Imagine a world without it or a world in which it is so expensive that only the upper classes of society could afford intercontinental travel. The possibilities are endless. A Futurist's View On The Future Of Events constructs two scenarios about the future of events and festivals in New Zealand, from a sport and food perspective. Each scenario identifies five driving forces and the implications for change by asking a series of significant questions about the future.
In Physics of the Future Michio Kaku demonstrates that in 2100 we will control computers via tiny brain sensors and, like magicians, move objects around with the power of our minds. Artificial intelligence will be dispersed throughout the environment, and Internet-enabled contact lenses will allow us to access the world's information base or conjure up any image we desire in the blink of an eye. So what does this mean for tourism? Is the future a world of flying cars, teleportation and space ships? More realistically, what about peak oil and ageing populations? What about the middle classes of China and India, the debate about the climate change emerging technologies such as claytronics used in hotel design. This chapter, A Futurist's Perspective of Ten Certainties of Change elaborates on drivers the drivers of change many think are uncertain, but in fact they are the opposite. The chapter explains why.
Download A Futurist's Perspective of Ten Certainties of Change
We know that by 2050 the world will be different compared to 2012, 10 billion will live on the planet, the average citizen will be older, oil will be a thing of the past and the world will be warmer. But it all depends how the world behaves in relation to these changes. For a sustainable future, that behaviour must be co-operative - a world of scarcity of resources drives policy to focus efficient resource use, waste minimization and collective responsibility. What does this all mean for tourism? In the spirit of this book I have tried to reflect on this from the perspective of three leaders writing to their constituencies, the President of the USA, the Prime Minister of New Zealand and the leader of New Zealand's tourism industry.
Download Our Sustainable Future - Looking Back from 2050
This chapter identifies two cluster of driving forces relating to the behaviours and values of the New Zealand's future tourist. First of all, the identity of fluidity in a future society – is an identity less restricted by background or geography but more by achievement. In a fluid environment, communications channels and technologies are fast developing instantly thus promoting a culture of choice enhancement.
In an era of the pension crisis, scarcity of oil, inflation and falling levels of disposal income in which tourism expenditure falls year on year tourists will also seek simplicity – typified by products available close to home or value based holidays with basic facilities the behaviours of simplicity emerge. Satisfying 'simplicity' requires particular types of advice: for example, advising travellers on the optimal time to purchase an airline ticket (e.g. www.bing.com/travel) or price comparison technologies which are found on many online booking services. The drivers identified here are the opposite of an affluent society and a fluid identity. The chapter discusses the impact of these drivers on the future of New Zealand.
This chapter identifies the importance of destination branding in a world of a multitude of choice. The chapter identifies a series of trends important for the future whether it is desire for new experiences, choice management or authenticity. Combined, these drivers are used to construct four scenarios about the future of destination branding.
This chapter draws together the drivers of climate change, peak oil, rising sea levels and the continued scarcity of resources against background of urbanisation. Research suggests that Los Angeles will have a climate that will be unbearable to future tourists and the rural landscape of California will undergo radical reshaping. Does this mean Los Angeles will be akin to the science fiction film Logan's Run, in which a reversal of fortunes occurs where ecotourism is an exclusive experience for the mega rich and tourism for the middle classes is restricted to an urban environment and controlled mass tourism excursions? Imagine a world in 2050, where the world is overcrowded and food production systems have failed. In order to feed this world, mass produced synthetic food is the norm.
NEW 26/4/18 New publication: What is food tourism? here.
NEW 2/3/18 Ian talks about the future of travel in Virgin Atlanticâ€™s Inflight magazine here.
NEW 22/2/18 New publication: Teaching tourism futures here.
20/2/18 Journal of Tourism Futures â€“ Call for papers on the history of tourism here.
02/2/18 The Future of Luxury: new research published in the Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management here.
The Future of Travel, featuring my research with ABC Australia here.
Call for Papers: Futures Practice and Theory here.
Call for Abstracts and Chapters: Science Fiction, Disruption and Tourism here.
Ian speaks about the future tourist in VisitEngland report here.
Keynote address: The Future of Luxury and Premium Pricing â€“ Paris 15th December 2017: More.
Call for Book Chapter: The Future Past of Tourism here.
Watch talk about the core drivers of change and Europe's future here.
Ian presents his views on technology futures to the OECD – 21st June here.
Ian profiled in Qatar Airways Oryx Magazine about the 'life of a futurist' here.
The future history of Revenue Management here.
The future of ping pong here.
Ian publishes research paper on scenario planning and policy in the Journal of Tourism Futures here.
The Future of Food Tourism reviewed in Annals of Leisure Research here.
Ian speaks to the EU on the future tourist here.
Fifteen years of Revenue Management here.
Ian appointed series editor by Channelview about the future of tourism Read More.
Previous News items can be found here.